Heavens Above!  The Alternative Weather Forecast for East Devon

by Caroline Allen (written November 2009)

Winter Forecast January – April 2010

I love the winter.  It is the most self-indulgent of seasons when nature hugs herself tight, and so do I. 

Coming from a generation that lies awake at night listening to its arteries silt up and for whom cholesterol has replaced Beelzebub as the quintessence of evil, I rely on the winter months to burn up the saturates and provide an excuse to lay down more. There is privacy within winter too which no other time of year gives.  Spring, summer and autumn are open season in the Otter Valley, but only in winter, in our countryside, can one find quiet still empty spaces to plug into the naked circuit of the landscape, anticipating the nascent promise of what lies waiting beneath; the story yet to be told. 

There will be several such quiet still days of expectancy folded into our valley this next three months, but cling onto that cholesterol too, because you will need it to keep you warm.  It is going to be a brutally cold, sharp and wet winter when leaden grey skies and scarcity of sunshine will make the sight of a freckle faced Ovarian as common as an Amish lap-dancer.

Weekly forecast for 31^st December 2009 – (Eclipse of the Full Moon 11* Cancer)

Talking of wrinklies, there is a 3,000 year old aphorism which says “When the full moon moves to Mercury, rain will follow” and this week will be no exception.  The blizzards and storms we experienced in the last week of the old year should still be in full swing at the new.  It will be a turbulent, wet and windy start with leaden grey skies and rainfall mainly in the daytime. Days like these let you savour a bad mood.

Lunation of 7^th January 2010: (3^rd Quarter Moon 18* Libra)

An unsettled week; any precipitation should fall in the late evening until just after midnight.  A cold high pressure system moving in brings a drop in temperature, and there will be heavy snowfall reported to the north of us around the 13^th but not I think, here. Not just yet.

Lunation of 15^th January: (Annular Eclipse of the New Moon 26* Capricorn)

Now it will snow!  This is the week when bleak mid-winter either bites with its teeth or lashes with its tail –possibly both. The New Moon eclipsed, Venus engulfed by the Sun, and Mercury held in Saturn’s vice should bring severe weather all over the country. Intense gale force winds will whip up either a blizzard or hail storm.  This is hurricane weather!

Lunation of 23^rd January: (1^st Quarter Moon 4* Taurus)

The gales die down into steady persistent rain this week; especially from the 26^th to 29^th when downfall will persist until well after lunchtime but clearing by evening.

Lunation of 30^th January: Full Moon at Perigee 11* Leo

Another turbulent week when the full moon coincides with her closest approach to the earth and pulls in daytime storms, frosts, and strong gale force winds.  Weather will make the headlines once more and we will read of snowstorms, blizzards and high drifts, and even if we don’t get snow ourselves in the Otter Valley we are guaranteed a tempest – this is a crisis week.

Lunation of 5th^th  February: 3^rd Quarter Moon 18* Scorpio

A time when the tides of both water and emotions could o’er leap themselves;  I hope you have lagged your nooks, crannies and crevices, because if I was correct about the big freeze of last week, then bursting pipes and thawing snow drifts could have devastating consequences this week.   Flooding is a strong possibility; as is yet more snowfall, after dark, when the temperatures drop!

Lunation of 14^th  February: New Moon 26* Aquarius

Saturn on the meridian at the start of this week implies lingering ‘weather difficulties’ – most probably as a result of previous flooding.  But it also is the harbinger of leaden overcast skies pierced by sudden spurts of intense sharp wind.   These should die down into milder and warmer conditions as the week progresses.

Lunation of 22^nd Feb: 1^st Quarter Moon 4* Gemini

It is mild for the time of year, damp and quite humid, but with very pleasant spells. There could be some precipitation around the 26^th-27^th .

Lunation of 28^th Feb: Full Moon

March is topsy turvy in that it comes in like a lamb and out like a lion! So it should feel agreeably balmy with nebulous swathes of humidity around the Otter mouth, and will o’ the wisp streaks of mist across the valley. There could be light showers around the beginning of the month but it will clear after two days.

Lunation of 7^th March:  3Q Moon 17* Sagittarius

A mixed week of showers and sunny periods, with downfall mainly at night. Mars stationing trine Venus on the 10^th indicates rising daytime temperatures as daylight hours grow longer, but there could still be hard frosts at night.

Lunation of 15^th March:  New Moon 26* Pisces

 Still warmish at the start of the week but disturbed atmospheric conditions mid-week when rising temperatures could result in a classic clash of ‘hot and cold’ fronts.  Maybe we could see hail in the higher ground.  The temperature should drop and the  wind get up quite a bit.

Lunation of 23^rd March: 1^st Quarter Moon 3* Cancer

 A mixed week again;  bright pleasant periods intermixed with April showers arriving early.  The Moon comes very close to the Earth on the 28^th  indicating gales, hail or storms over the last three days and so this month may reverse the old adage and come in like a lamb and go out like a lion!

Weather tip: To shorten winter, borrow some money due in the spring.

Caroline Allen (written 17th  November 2009)

AUTUMN 2009

Batten down the hatches!  This may turn out to be one of those autumns better remembered than experienced. We could be in for a boisterous season this year when the Otter Valley’s reputation for enjoying an exceptionally mild and temperate climate will be punctured by several sharp and turbulent squalls.  The main theme is ‘wind’ of which we will get a lot, ranging from draughty to downright bracing! We must gird our loins for a couple of gales, a thunderstorm, two hailstorms, a hurricane and possibly even a blizzard before the end of the year! 

All is not doom and gloom however and rest assured we should enjoy some bright and wonderfully invigorating days interwoven with delightful interludes of mist and mellow fruitfulness in the coming months.  Although come to think of it, must and mildewed mouldiness may be the most remembered description as damp and disgruntled Ovarians disport themselves amongst the raindrops this autumn.  A forecaster’s lot is not a happy one when the bearer of wet and windy tidings.   

A fine if blowy start to September with rain expected about the 3rd and then again around the 7^th.  But the good news is that we could all enjoy a delightful Indian Summer from 12th and the 18^th  when a ridge of high pressure moves across the countryside bringing a fine period of morning mists rising up from the Otter estuary and melting into autumnal sunshine and the sea; an idyllic and delightfully pleasant few days.  The latter part of the month is not so balmy unfortunately. I suspect we will once again be grumbling about leaden drenched skies, east winds and falling temperatures.  There are disturbingly turbulent weather conditions prevailing in the latter half of September and although we in the Otter Valley should escape relatively unscathed - apart from that  thunder storm I mentioned - ‘major weather events’ elsewhere in the world will hit the headlines.  The last week of the month is not a good time to travel at all, as flight schedules train time-tables and communications networks will ‘gang oft agley’.  This is ‘wrong leaves on the railway line weather’ :-(

October will splutter in spitting and blustering, but on the bright side we will enjoy some wonderful cloudscapes if perhaps lacking Tiepolo’s cavorting putti.  There should be a pleasant respite giving a mild and clement few days around the 4^th but this could just be lulling us into a false sense of security, because conditions deteriorate into gusty showers once more from the 8^{th /}9^th, and then go downhill faster than Michael Fish on roller-skates when the wind whips up quite a storm  in-between the 12^th – 15^th.  Hopefully the latter part of the month should be drier than the first half although it will still feel briskly bracing from the 18^th – 25^th.  Mind you don’t leave your umbrellas at home in the last week, although the rise in temperature may produce humidity which settles into romantically picturesque mist or fog rather than precipitation.

There are very disturbed atmospheric conditions as we go into November.  Don’t hold your fireworks party outdoors because frenzied winds could blow into a headline making hurricane around the 5^th drenching the sparklers and drowning Guy Fawkes. If I have read the signs aright, I am anticipating quite a storm with risk of flooding around bonfire night.  A variable few days of fair weather and showers follows from the 9^th – 15^th, then difficult and gloomy undercurrents from 16^th to the 23^rd look like producing yet another gale!  The skies should clear by the 24^th however, before settling down into a welcome calm quiet misty and foggy patch.

December slips in meek and mild with fair weather and broken cloud.  Expect rain between the 4^th and the 9^th   followed by a mixed few days of sunshine and showers.  Note that a sudden reversal of temperature could result in a splattering of sharp hail or sleet in the third week of the month.  I am reluctant to mention it as I don’t want to be a party pooper, but feel I must warn you that travelling conditions look to be problematical once again over the Christmas period.  The festivities could be hampered by erratic wet and windy weather and would you believe it but yet another heavy storm or possibly even a blizzard is in store for us during the last week of the year!    I do hope Santa puts his thermals on, because unless I am very much mistaken, he will need them before the old year goes out! :-(

Weekly Forecast for 27^th August until 31^st December 2009

^st Quarter Moon: 11:42 gmt  27^th August 2009

There may be a damp autumn mist in the air now although this could be stirred up by sporadic spurts of wind and the possibility of more rain to come about the 3^rd September .

Full Moon: 16:03 gmt  4^th September 2009

Possibly a blustery shower or two around the 5^th  or 7th of the month, but otherwise a pleasant week.

3^rd Quarter Moon: 02:16 gmt  12^th September 2009

This could be an Indian Summer for us as high pressure moves across the country bringing a fine period of morning mists of mellow fruitfulness, and some pleasantly warm and sunny days.  Enjoy!

New Moon: 18:44 gmt 18^th September 2009  

A problematic week!  There are very turbulent aspects around resulting in variable cloudiness with damp leaden skies, east winds and low hanging clouds and  falling temperatures.  The winds could whip up a gale or even a nasty thunderstorm, and at best it will be very wet.

1^st Quarter Moon: 04:50 gmt 26^th September 2009

A dismal start to the week again, the same as above with difficult conditions.  Cool and windy with spasmodic showers.  Not a week to travel.

Full Moon: 4^th  - 10^th October

This is a puzzling week; perhaps we will enjoy a few days clement and dry weather before an anticyclone pulls in those gloomy overcast skies once more. The wind could blow up a squall around the 8^th or the 9^th  though.

3^rd Quarter Moon: 11^th – 17^th October

There is still rain around in this week too with Neptune bringing in a downfall from the west.  Stormy conditions, especially between the 12^th – 15^th .

New Moon: 18^th – 25^th October

It will still feel rather cool and breezy but theoretically it should at least be dry for a spell now that Mars has moved into Leo. (Remind me if it isn’t and I will strike off that testimony!) 

1^st Quarter Moon: 26^th October – 1^st November

There could be something rather odd and unsettled about the weather this week!  It will be perhaps be warmer than is usual for the time of year, or precipitating mist or fog gives ‘peculiar’ weather conditions; although I don’t discount rain altogether! 

Full Moon: 2^nd – 8^th  November

There will be very disturbed atmospheric conditions in the first week of November with violent winds and plummeting temperatures keeping us indoors.  Don’t plan a fireworks party for Bonfire Night this year either, because it looks like a hurricane is booked in for that night too!  Very destructive wet and windy influences will directly affect us and so if vulnerable to flooding or the wind, please do take precautions. I hope I am wrong, but better be safe than sorry.

3^rd Quarter Moon: 9^th – 15^th November

A variable few days of fair weather and showers, but the winds should dry the pavements in-between the two, so despite the damp it will feel quite pleasant until the very end of the week.

New Moon: 16^th – 23^rd November

Overcast and gloomy weather with violent undercurrents; at best leaden skies should be ripped apart by bleak east winds, at worst a major storm.  A dismal period owing to the difficult conditions – or perhaps because of the gloomy newspaper headlines.

1^st Quarter Moon: 24^th November – 1^st December

The skies brighten for a few days before settling down into quiet, misty or foggy weather.  It will feel unseasonably warm for the time of year.

Full Moon: 2^nd – 8^th December

Another variable week: fair but cooler weather with broken cloud.  Rain may precipitate between the 4^th – 9th.

Third Quarter Moon: 9th – 15^th December

A clement and dry start to the week, but the thermometer should drop, and the wind gets up again towards the end. There is an erratic crystallizing factor which could turn a sudden rain squall into hail then. 

New Moon: 16^th – 23^rd December

A pervasive misty raw dampness in the air could turn into light snow up on the high ground.  Down here in the Otter Valley we are more likely to get intermittent drizzle or sleet, although I don’t discount a splattering of hail.

1^st Quarter Moon: 24^th – 31^st December

Oh dear! A cold wet and windy prospect for the Christmas period with rain and plummeting temperatures and I am very much afraid we are guaranteed bleak and difficult conditions for the last week of the year when it looks to me as though we may even get a blizzard.

 I do hope that Santa brings us all cashmere, oilskins and stout boots for Christmas!

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"Weather or Not - An Alternative Forecast”  May - September 2009

Long Range Weather from the Stars for East Devon, England (50* 38’ North 003* 20’ West)

by Caroline Allen (Written April 2009)

Several readers have asked in what way Astro-meteorology differs from conventional Meteorology.  Perhaps the main difference is that a meteorologist analyses current satellite images and computer projections to forecast the development of the weather from its presenting symptoms, whereas an astro-meterologist studies the planetary cycles to predict the weather’s development from its perceived causes.  Might I mischievously suggest that a science which is based on the end results is not necessarily the best at predicting them in the first place, just as gynaecologists do not necessarily make the best lovers. ;-)

Looking at the solar ingress at the solstice for the British Isles (05:46 gmt 21 June 2009) it looks like a real mixed bag of weather is in store for us this summer.  Unusual weather will be making the headlines, but I think it will be unusual in that it will be erratic, and temperatures will be yo-yoing up and down the thermometer!  We should enjoy some extremely pleasant weather, and also rather warm periods in the way of mini heat waves, especially in the south east of the British Isles, but down here in East Devon there will be fluctuations of temperature, with the hot spells alternating between much cooler and breezier conditions and, I am afraid to say, punctuated by some very wet thundery showers.  In short, it is going to be a liquorice allsorts kind of summer!

Looking a little more closely at the lunations from the summer solstice onwards:

New Moon; 19:34 gmt  Monday 22^nd June 2009

The New Moon at maximum declination and perigee in Cancer opposed by intense Pluto should produce moisture for us sometime this week, although probably not until towards the end.  The Venus-Mars conjunction at the tail end of the 4^th house encourages rising temperatures but is baulked by frigid Saturn.  The week therefore may have warm, dry, clear and sunny periods, but rising humidity and a clash of hot and cold fronts should result in isolated squalls and thundery showers, most probably overnight on  the 23^rd / 24^th of June. 

1^st Quarter Moon 11:28 gmt 29^th June 2009

A changeable time coming up!  Most days this week should prove to be pleasantly warm and sunny with a heat haze in the morning clearing to beautiful blue skies sprinkled with puffy white clouds.  These breezes will stiffen however, when Uranus has his say, and it could get downright windy!

Full Moon: 09:21 gmt  7^th July 2009

Enjoy the warm sultry  days resulting from the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction before they are punctured by Mars! There will have been disturbed atmospheric conditions during the first week of July when Mercury passed behind the Sun.  The Full Moon on the 7^th turns her gaze towards Saturn which should produce  thundery showers before bedtime!

Last Quarter Moon: 09:53 gmt 15^th July 2009

A variable if somewhat windy couple of days around the 14^th but otherwise things will start to feel very warm and humid, muggy even.  It may cloud over somewhat or there could be a heat haze.

New Moon: 02:35 gmt 22^nd July 2009

(Total Solar Eclipse 29* Cancer)

A stagnant low pressure system could develop with lowered barometer, and oppressive humidity.  Perhaps we shall see some thunder storms when the Moon sextiles Mars on 22^nd or before conjoining Saturn on the 25th^.

1^st Quarter Moon: 22:00 gmt  28^th July 2009

Warm and oppressively sultry conditions should continue to the end of the month and into August and again there is a possibility of yet more rain this week. 

Full Moon: 0:55 gmt  6^th August 2009

A hot and humid few days and as this is potentially the hottest period of the year we could enjoy  a heat haze which gives way to  turbulent or thundery weather around the 9^th .

3^rd Quarter Moon: 18:55 gmt  13^th August 2009

A much cooler period begins now; Mercury hits Saturn on the 17^th    when the temperatures should drop.  Counter-clockwise east winds should bring squalls or thundery showers.

New Moon: 10:02 gmt 20^th August 2009

This could be a very turbulent week with excessive wind and damp.  It is possible that destructive weather events elsewhere in the world could make headlines around this time, but rest assured I am not expecting it to occur in the Otter valley which should only feel much cooler and wetter than of late.

1^st Quarter Moon: 11:42 gmt  27^th August 2009

There may be a damp autumn mist in the air now although this could be stirred up by sporadic spurts of wind and the possibility of more rain to come about the 3^rd September .

Full Moon: 16:03 gmt  4^th September 2009

Possibly a blustery shower or two around the 5^th of the month, but otherwise a pleasant week.

3^rd Quarter Moon: 02:16 gmt  12^th September 2009

This could be an Indian Summer for us as high pressure moves across the country bringing a fine period of morning mists of mellow fruitfulness, and some pleasantly warm and sunny days.  Enjoy!

New Moon: 18:44 gmt 18^th September 2009  

This could be a problematic week in that there are very turbulent aspects around.  There will be variable cloudiness with damp leaden skies, east winds and low hanging clouds with falling temperatures.  It will probably be a stormy and extremely windy week.

1^st Quarter Moon: 04:50 gmt 26^th September 2009

A dismal start to the week the same as above with difficult conditions.  Cool and with spasmodic showers.  Not a week to travel!

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Weather or Not?

Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it! The Greek poet Hesiod was grumbling about the effect of the stars upon the weather back in 700 BC warning his readers of approaching ‘blasts of wind blowing from every direction’ and blaming the Pleiades; but the earliest Astro-meteorologist whose work still survives was the Greek philosopher and scientist Aristotle, who tried to sort the climate out by writing his treatise on weather and the atmosphere ‘The Meteorologica’ some 350 years later.  Aristotle knew that when the Sun, Moon and planets formed specific angular relationships to the Earth that certain known influences resulted, and it is mainly on his work and that of his prolific pupil Theophrastus that I am basing my spring forecast for 2009. 

And a miserable forecast it turns out to be. Forget about global warming: the rest of the world may be suffering from a shortage of water but it looks as though we here in East Devon are in for as wild, wet and windy a spring in 2009 as Hesiod experienced in Greece 2,709 years ago. The weather doesn’t seem to change much does it?

The planet Saturn is the culprit in that he tends to concentrate the qualities of the Zodiacal sign he occupies, and so a temperature chart cast for the Vernal Equinox at 11:44 am GMT on 20^th March 2009 and depicting gloomy Saturn occupying the lower meridian  opposed by windy Mercury, bodes ill, in that England as a whole will experience an exceptionally cold and blustery  Spring season with sudden drops in temperature, increased wind velocity, localized storms, overcast skies and intermittent chilly damp drizzles.    Like Hesiod, we will all be complaining like mad!

With the Moon in stormy Capricorn squaring up to Saturn at the solar ingress there will be some pretty spectacular  thunder storms in and around the Otter Valley this Spring, occurring just when we least expect or want them!  The Moon rules moisture and Saturn produces a counter-clockwise airflow of low pressure systems resulting in cold, grey leaden skies with low hanging clouds, east winds and falling barometers, which combined with the volatile wind velocity of Uranus will instigate at least two hailstorms and possibly even unseasonal sleet in the upper reaches of the Otter Valley, and less destructive but equally wet rain squalls down along the coast.  I am worried these subnormal temperatures and the excessive damp and cloudiness will prove injurious to crops and consequently send the price of vegetables and grain soaring. 

APRIL

April will prove to be very wet and windy indeed, but temperatures should rise a little around the 8^th or 9^th, and the winds calm down when Mercury moves out of contentious Aries into balmy Taurus.  But volatile planetary aspects will cause several more isolated rain or thunder showers up and down the valley just after midmonth between the 15^th  and the  20^th  when there could be torrential downpours; watch those umbrellas from blowing inside out late evening on the 19^th!  The New Moon on 25^th April should guarantee several dry, fair to breezy days for Budleigh Salterton’s Jazz week, with clouds scudding along freely in an open sky, but I am not at all confident about the damp keeping totally away for the jazz lovers, especially after sunset.

MAY

May arrives and unfortunately so too does the rain again, sweeping in overnight on the 2^nd/3^rd.  On the whole it feel much chillier than normal for this time of the year with fluctuating temperatures sparking off thunderstorms within the valley, especially  in the daytime between the full Moon on the 9^th and the last quarter Moon 17th. The new Moon of 24^th May should herald a gusty start to the town’s Gala week but I am expecting some rather strange, even freakish weather around then.  There is an unusual configuration on 26^th/27^th May that could induce isolated, torrential downpours and flash flooding around this time, so if you live in a low lying area be warned, and if vulnerable take precautions.

JUNE

June at last!  Mercury will now be moving in forward motion bringing softer conditions during the first week but it will still feel much cooler than normal for the time of the year; and with erratic Uranus and Neptune prominent watch out for sudden squalls around the 7th.  In fact some areas could even experience unseasonable hail in the second week!  And even though the thermometer should rise towards the end of the month sunshine will be in short supply and we will still be clutching our umbrellas in the final week of the month when I don’t discount yet more rain and possibly even yet another thunderstorm! 

I really do apologise to be the bearer of such bad tidings!  This coming spring unfortunately appears to be unusually chilly and overcast, not just for us here in East Devon, but for the U.K. as a whole; but I promise to search very hard to find some summer sunshine for you in the next report.